The SARB has been cutting rates.

The headlines celebrate. The economists commentate. And most South African business owners carry on exactly as before.

That is the wrong response.

A rate cutting cycle in South Africa is not just a signal about borrowing costs. It is a window. And windows close.

Here is what I am watching right now:

Distressed businesses that survived on survival mode will start becoming acquirable at rational prices. High rates kept many zombie businesses technically alive – refinancing repeatedly, deferring everything. As rates fall, the pretending stops. Assets move. This is deal flow for buyers who are positioned.

Property that was underwater at 11.75% prime starts breathing at 10% and below. Commercial property, healthcare facilities, mixed-use developments – the numbers that didn’t work 18 months ago are worth modelling again today.

The cost of capital for new ventures drops. WACC comes down. Projects that were NPV-negative at last year’s discount rate may be value-creating today. If you shelved a business case in 2023 or 2024 because the numbers didn’t work – dust it off.

International capital gets more interested in SA. Lower rates signal a stabilising macro environment. Foreign investors who were watching from the sidelines recalibrate their risk models. South African assets get re-rated -slowly, then suddenly.

The mistake most people make is waiting to feel the rate cuts before acting.

By the time you feel them, the smart money has already moved.

The question is not whether the cycle is real. It is whether you are positioned ahead of it or behind it.

Where are you sitting right now?